A growing number of Kenyans believe President William Ruto could face an uphill task securing a second term in 2027, with a new public opinion survey showing that 41 per cent of respondents feel his re-election would be difficult if veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga were no longer a factor in national politics. This is according to TIFA findings.
The findings suggest that Raila’s long-standing presence in Kenya’s political arena has played a stabilizing and at times predictable role in shaping electoral contests. According to respondents, his absence could significantly alter political alignments, voter mobilization, and opposition dynamics, creating new uncertainties for the incumbent president.
While 30 per cent of those polled believe President Ruto would benefit politically, arguing that Raila’s exit would weaken opposition unity, a notable 18 per cent say it would make no difference, insisting that economic performance and governance issues will ultimately determine the 2027 outcome.
Another 10 per cent remain undecided.
Political analysts say the results reflect deeper public sentiment rather than personal loyalties. They argue that Raila Odinga has historically served as a political rallying point, and without him, opposition forces may fragment or realign in unpredictable ways,a scenario that could either help or hurt the president.
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“Raila’s role has often defined the political battlefield. His absence would not automatically translate into an easy win for the government,” one analyst noted, adding that voter anger over the cost of living, taxation, unemployment and governance concerns could outweigh personalities.
As the 2027 election draws closer, the poll underscores one key message: President Ruto’s re-election prospects will depend less on who exits the political stage and more on how his administration addresses the everyday struggles of Kenyans.
