The military and political dynamics unfolding in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo point unmistakably to a profound and irreversible shift in the balance of power. What once appeared as a complex constellation of actors is now collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.
The chief losers remain unchanged. The loose coalition composed of FARDC, FDLR elements, Wazalendo militias, Burundian contingents, SADC forces, and various hired mercenaries has been hollowed out by dwindling troop numbers, outdated equipment, fragmented alliances, and an increasingly chaotic communication strategy that no longer masks its disarray.
This former axis has effectively crumbled due to its lack of strategic coherence and its structural inability to produce unified command. Any scenario imagining its reconstitution in its previous form has become unrealistic. The particularly heavy losses among Burundian forces in and around Minembwe have shattered any hope of a coordinated resurgence.
To this military breakdown is added an emerging territorial reality: the institutional and administrative reorganization taking shape in areas now under the de facto authority of the AFC/M23. This development represents a decisive break. Where Kinshasa expected to extend its bureaucratic disorder and political improvisation, it is instead confronted with a growing political-administrative structure that exists entirely beyond its reach. The central government lacks the networks, legitimacy, and logistical capacity to reimpose its waning authority.
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Compounding the crisis, the establishment by FARDC and its allies of large-scale forced regroupment sites camps that, in their logic, resemble concentration structures has deepened the rift between Kinshasa and local communities. These practices, both morally indefensible and politically catastrophic, solidify the estrangement of populations who no longer recognize or trust the authority of the central state.
A shrinking presidency and a crisis of legitimacy
Against this backdrop, the increasingly inconsistent rhetoric of President Félix Tshisekedi and his Union Sacrée reveals a leadership struggling to retain relevance. The country now faces two converging scenarios: either the emergence of a regionally administered order fully detached from Kinshasa’s control, strengthened by administrative consolidation in liberated zones; or a deeper national-level political realignment as the presidency’s room for maneuver continues to shrink.
Tshisekedi’s mandate is contracting rapidly. The few levers of influence still available to him are being eroded by diplomatic isolation, successive military failures, the collapse of regional alliances, and widespread public frustration with what many describe as erratic, emotional, and visionless governance.
A tragic paradox persists: the president appears to be the only actor unable or unwilling to perceive the gravity of the moment. While political allies distance themselves, foreign governments acknowledge the new territorial balance, and the armed forces sink deeper into a pattern of defeat, the head of state continues to rely on increasingly hollow declarations that do little to alter realities on the ground.
The end of a cycle is taking shape with unsettling clarity. The Republic stands at a crossroads between the consolidation of a parallel order in the east and the possibility of a leadership reconfiguration at the national level. The extent of this shift will depend largely on how quickly Kinshasa regains, or fails to regain, a firm grasp on reality.
No political power survives prolonged blindness. In this case, history is accelerating and the country’s highest authority seems unable to recognize the pace at which it is unfolding.
