The capture of the city of Uvira by the AFC/M23 coalition struck Burundi like a bolt of lightning to the core. It was not only security that was shaken, nor merely military prestige that collapsed; the entire national economy was suddenly plunged into a severe crisis. As a result, President Évariste Ndayishimiye’s administration found itself confronted with alarming figures, prompting war rhetoric to begin replacing the language of dialogue.
In the weeks leading up to these events, President Ndayishimiye and his military advisers were highly confident that they could defeat AFC/M23 and push it back in South Kivu province. That confidence was based on the heavy military equipment deployed by the Burundian army, including long-range heavy weapons, combat drones, and other modern arms.
The objective was not simply to support the Congolese armed forces, but to restore Burundi’s prestige, which had been tarnished for months by an unclear and controversial military engagement in eastern Congo.
The leadership in Bujumbura sought to demonstrate that it had a decisive role in regional security, thereby strengthening President Ndayishimiye’s standing both domestically and on the international stage.
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However, events did not unfold as expected. AFC/M23 fighters, who were also well prepared, pushed back Burundian forces, FARDC troops, Wazalendo groups, and FDLR elements at an unexpectedly rapid pace. Within just a few days, fighting reached the outskirts of Uvira, a city of immense economic and security importance to Burundi.
As the fighting intensified, the Burundian government began showing signs of fear grounded in hard realities.
On December 10, 2025, Burundi’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Edouard Bizimana, told Radio France Internationale (RFI) that the capture of Uvira would endanger the security of Bujumbura, given the very short distance between the two cities, so short that travel between them takes only minutes.
He stated: “Our economic capital would be threatened. Trade, the movement of people and goods would come to a halt, compounded by the refugee issue. All of this would place enormous pressure on the country.”
That statement appeared to foreshadow what followed. On that very day, AFC/M23 announced that it had taken control of the city of Uvira. Shortly thereafter, the Burundian government closed the Kavimvira and Vugizo border crossings linking Burundi to the DRC, suspending all trade dependent on those routes.
That decision quickly translated into a major loss for Burundi. Uvira is not an ordinary city. It covers more than 200 square kilometers, is home to approximately 700,000 people, and lies along Lake Tanganyika. It serves as the primary economic gateway between Burundi and South Kivu.
The Kavimvira border was a vital artery for daily trade. Congolese and Burundians exchanged foodstuffs, fish, agricultural products, and other essential goods. The closure of this border cut the economic lifeline of both countries, most severely affecting Burundi, whose economy was already fragile.
Faustin Ndikumana, director of PARCEM, stated that more than 60 percent of Burundi’s exports are destined for the DRC, mainly passing through the Kavimvira border. These exports generated critically needed foreign currency for a country already struggling with a foreign exchange crisis.
Data from Burundi’s Central Bank shows that in 2024, Burundi exported 135,300 tons of goods, of which 69,400 tons were sent to the DRC. The closure of the Kavimvira border immediately disrupted this entire economic activity.
The fuel shortage crisis worsened further. Many Burundians had been purchasing gasoline and diesel in South Kivu at lower prices. After the border closure, this option disappeared.
RFI journalist Esdras Ndikumana confirmed that the price of a 20-liter jerrycan of fuel rose from 150,000 Burundian francs to 400,000, while the U.S. dollar climbed to 6,500 Burundian francs.
Amid this turmoil, the Burundian government hardened its tone. What began as a pledge to protect Bujumbura at all costs evolved into open declarations that military options were possible. These statements eventually turned into explicit threats against Rwanda.
At the United Nations, Ambassador Zéphyrin Maniratanga accused Rwanda of violating UN resolutions, calling for the withdrawal of Rwandan forces from the DRC and urging the imposition of strong sanctions. He warned that if cross-border attacks continued, Burundi was prepared to enter an open war with Rwanda.
These remarks came as Burundian forces had already suffered defeats in Kamanyola, Lubarika, and Luvungi, and faced accusations of committing atrocities against civilians, particularly the Banyamulenge community in the Minembwe area.
On the other hand, AFC/M23 stated that it does not seek hostile relations with Burundi, expressing a desire for peaceful coexistence and signaling that borders could be reopened and trade resumed if there is political will.
In reality, the capture of Uvira revealed that Burundi’s losses go far beyond the military sphere. They represent economic loss, loss of prestige, and a collapse in political strategy. The figures President Ndayishimiye relied upon turned into alarming deficits, making war rhetoric a way of deflecting attention from mounting domestic pressures.
The remaining danger is that such rhetoric could push the region toward open war, at a time when dialogue, de-escalation, and economic stabilization are far more urgently needed.
Burundi has since taken a further step in its diplomatic language, publicly declaring that it may enter an open war with Rwanda due to the ongoing fighting in South Kivu.
This position was announced by its representative at the United Nations in New York, who stated that Burundi continues to feel under attack and will no longer tolerate what it describes as cross-border assaults.
Burundi’s ambassador to the UN, Zéphyrin Maniratanga, accused Rwanda of failing to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2773, which calls on Rwanda to withdraw its forces from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
He also recalled that the same resolution requires the Congolese government to dismantle armed groups operating in eastern DRC, including the FDLR, which has long been accused of fighting alongside FARDC against AFC/M23.
The diplomat said Burundi has serious concerns over alleged Rwandan actions, including cross-border attacks involving heavy weapons, drones, and other lethal arms.
He emphasized that some of these attacks had reached Burundian territory, describing them as violations of national sovereignty that endanger civilians and undermine all efforts aimed at achieving lasting peace in the region.
Ambassador Maniratanga called on the UN Security Council to convene an emergency meeting to consider strong measures, including arms and economic sanctions against Rwanda. He added that while Burundi seeks peace, it will not accept continued inaction if attacks persist, affirming that his country is ready to enter war if necessary.
He stated: “Ceasefires have limits. If these attacks continue, it will be extremely difficult to avoid an open war between our two countries.”
These statements come as Burundi continues to accuse Rwanda, while its forces have suffered defeats in Kamanyola, Lubarika, and Luvungi. The same forces are also accused of involvement in violence against civilians, particularly the Banyamulenge community in the Minembwe region.
For its part, Rwanda has denied all these accusations, stating that it supports diplomatic solutions rather than dragging the region into an open war that could have devastating consequences for security and economic stability.
