Following the capture of Uvira on the night of December 9, 2025, social media quickly filled with rumors suggesting that AFC/M23 might launch an attack on Burundi. These claims immediately triggered fear among residents of the Ruzizi Plain, Bujumbura Rural, and other areas bordering the DRC.
Although AFC/M23 has publicly and clearly denied these allegations, many questions remain:
What sparked these rumors? Could such an attack be possible? What is the real atmosphere of tension and uncertainty on both sides of the border?
This report analyzes the origins of the rumors, the security situation on both sides, the military cooperation between FARDC, FDLR, and Burundian forces, and the international political motives behind claims that “AFC/M23 might cross the Ruzizi into Burundi.”
After AFC/M23 captured Uvira swiftly and unexpectedly, the situation changed dramatically at the Burundi border. Within hours, Burundi closed all its southern border crossings with the DRC. Security forces were reinforced around Bujumbura, and locals began speaking of the possibility that “the war could cross to the other side.”
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For many, Burundi’s sudden heightened security intensified the rumors. They asked: Why would a country close its borders so abruptly unless there was a serious threat?
In reality, the border closures were triggered by two main concerns:
- Fear for Burundian soldiers left behind in the hills
Some Burundian troops had been defeated in the mountainous regions ofLemera, Luvungi, Mitumbili, Sange, and elsewhere. Some were killed, others went missing, while some tried to cross Lake Tanganyika toward Rumonge.
Once AFC/M23 captured Uvira, all escape routes for these soldiers were cut off.
- Fear of retaliation by AFC/M23
Since Burundi has been fighting alongside FARDC, FDLR, andWazalendo against AFC/M23, there were fears that the group might strike back in revenge.
Despite the circulating rumors, AFC/M23 firmly denied the claims, stating: “No Plan to Enter Burundi.”
On December 11, 2025, the group released a statement clarifying that it has no intention, no motive, and no strategic interest in crossing the Ruzizi into Burundi.
They declared: “There are no military operations, nor any reason that would make AFC/M23 involve Burundi in a conflict that concerns the Congolese.”
They added:
“We respect Burundi’s sovereignty. Uvira is a Congolese issue, not an issue involving any other country.”
Although these statements were meant to calm public anxiety, they did not immediately dispel the fear.
Why Did Rumors of an Attack Spread So Quickly?
- The speed of M23’s operations
The fall ofUvira showed M23’s unexpected reach deep inside the DRC. This led many to ask: “If M23 could take Uvira this fast, why couldn’t it cross the Ruzizi?” - The presence of Burundian troops in South Kivu
Over 20,000 Burundian soldiers had been fighting in South Kivu alongside FARDC,Wazalendo, and FDLR. Since AFC/M23 managed to capture all these areas, concerns about retaliation spread. - Fear-based political messaging
Some factions within FARDC and their supporters were accused of spreading claims such as:
“M23 wants to take Uvira, Bukavu, Goma, and then invade Burundi.”
This fear-based messaging played a major role in spreading the rumors.
Could It Actually Happen?
AFC/M23 possesses two defining characteristics: It is militarily powerful and technologically advanced;, But all its operations remain strictly within DRC territory. Since 2021, it has never crossed into another country to wage war.
Three Reasons AFC/M23 Would Not Attack Burundi
- It would ignite a regional conflict
Crossing Burundi’s border would internationalize the war, increase blame on Rwanda, and damage Burundi’s relations with neighboring states. M23 hasstated such an action is far from its objectives. - It would unleash global condemnation
Invading a sovereign nation is considered cross-border aggression. The UN, AU, EAC, and the international community would mount overwhelming pressure. - M23’sstatedaims are Congolese, not regional
The group repeatedly states its goal is “to protect persecuted Congolese civilians, not to seize neighboring countries.”
Burundi’s Fears and Preparations
From 2023 to 2025, Burundi was heavily involved in fighting in South Kivu, particularly in Lemera, Kiliba, Sange, Luvungi, Katogota, and Rubuga.
Since Burundian troops often fought alongside FDLR, AFC/M23 considers them to be acting as an extension of the Kinshasa government.
Some therefore feared M23 might retaliate, but the group has consistently restricted its operations to Congolese territory.
Recent events suggest Burundi was preparing for two things:
Receiving its soldiers returning home, Preventing “infiltrators” from crossing the border.
Burundi closed the border because: Some of its soldiers were in disarray, Others were fleeing the fighting, There were concerns that armed elements might mix with civilians and cross into Burundi.
To an outside observer, the border closure could look like “preparations for war.”
But in reality, it was an internal security measure.
