Nyuma y’ifatwa rya Uvira mu ijoro ryo ku wa 9 Ukuboza 2025, hari amakuru yatangiye gukwira ku mbuga nkoranyambaga avuga ko AFC/M23 ishobora gutera u Burundi, ibintu byahise bitera impungenge mu baturage b’i Ruzizi, Bujumbura Rural n’utundi duce duhana imbibi na RDC.
Nubwo AFC/M23 yamaze kubihakana mu buryo bweruye, ibibazo bitandukanye biracyari kwibazwa na benshi: Ni iki cyakuruye ibi bihuha? Ese birashoboka? Ni uwuhe mwuka w’ubutwererane n’ubwoba uvugwa ku mpande zombi?
Iyi nkuru irasesengura impamvu zabyukije ibihuha, imiterere y’umutekano ku mpande zombi, ubufatanye mu ntambara hagati ya FARDC, FDLR n’ingabo z’u Burundi, n’impamvu politiki mpuzamahanga zihishe inyuma yio kuvuga ko “AFC/M23 ishobora kwambuka Ruzizi.”
Kuva AFC/M23 yafata Uvira mu buryo bwihuse kandi butunguranye, ibintu byahise bihinduka ku mupaka w’u Burundi. Mu masaha make gusa, u Burundi bwafunze imipaka ibuhuza na RDC mu majyepfo, inzego z’umutekano zakajije umurego mu nkengero za Bujumbura, abaturage batangiye kuvuga iby’uko “intambara ishobora kwambuka inkombe.”
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Kuri benshi, iyi myiteguro y’u Burundi yatumye bihuha byiyongera: kuki igihugu cyafunga imipaka mu buryo bw’akataraboneka niba nta kibazo gikomeye gihari?
Gusa, mu by’ukuri, imipaka yafunzwe kubera impamvu ebyiri z’ingenzi: Gutinya ko ingabo z’u Burundi zasigaye mu misozi zihigwa na M23.
Hari abasirikare b’u Burundi bari bacitse ku rugamba aho bamwe bari baguye mu misozi miremire ya Lemera, Luvungi, Mitumbili, Sange n’utundi duce, mu gihe abandi bari baraburiwe irengero, abandi bageragezaga kwambuka Tanganyika ngo bagere Rumonge.
AFC/M23 imaze gufata Uvira, inzira zose bari bacamo zarafunze.
Impamvu ya kabiri ni Ubwoba bw’uko AFC/M23 ishobora kwihorera, kuko u Burundi busanzwe bufatanya na FARDC, FDLR na Wazalendo mu ntambara yo kurwanya AFC/M23, hari ubwoba ko uwo mutwe ushobora kubifata nk’ishyari cyangwa kwihorera.
Nubwo aya makuru y’ibuhuha akomeje gukwirakwira, AFC/M23 yayanyomoje yivuye inyuma, aho yavuze ko “Nta Gahunda yo Kwambuka i Burundi”
Ku wa 11 Ukuboza 2025, AFC/M23 yasohoye itangazo risobanura neza ko nta gahunda, nta mpamvu, nta n’inyungu bafite mu kwambuka Ruzizi ngo bajye i Burundi.
Iti: “Nta bikorwa bya gisirikare, nta n’impamvu zishobora gutuma AFC/M23 yinjiza u Burundi mu ntambara y’Abanye-Congo.”
Yunzemo iti: “Twubaha ubusugire bw’u Burundi. Uvira ni ikibazo cy’Abanye-Congo, si ikibazo cy’igihugu kindi icyo ari cyo cyose.”
Nubwo Ibi bisobanuro bya AFC/M23 byari bigamije guhagarika ibihuha ariko ntibyahise bihosha ubwoba.
None se kuki ibihuha byo gutera u Burundi byakwirakwiye cyane?
Intambara M23 irwana irenze imbibi za RDC. Igitero cyo gufata Uvira cyerekanye ko M23 ishobora kugera ahantu hagati mu gihugu aho benshi batatekerezaga ko yagerayo.
Ibi byatumye bamwe bibaza: “Niba M23 yafashe Uvira vuba gutya, kuki itakwambuka Ruzizi?”
Indi mpamvu ni uko Ingabo z’u Burundi zibarirwa mu bihumbi 20 zari ziri mu mirwano yo muri Sud Kivu, zifatanyije na FARDC, Wazalendo, FDLR, AFC/M23 yafashe ibi bice byose, bityo ibihuha byo kwihorera biriyongera.
Indi mpamvu y’ibi bihuha ni Politiki yo gutera ubwoba abaturage. Hari uruhande rwa FARD n’abayishyigikiye ruvugwaho gukwirakwiza amakuru ko: “M23 ishaka gufata Uvira, Bukavu, Goma, hanyuma igatera u Burundi.”
Iyi politiki yo gucengeza ubwoba yagize uruhare rukomeye mu gukwirakwiza ibi bihuha.
Ese mu by’ukuri byagerwaho? AFC/M23 ifite ibintu bibiri byihariye: ni umutwe ufite imbaraga nyinshi za gisirikaren’ikoranabuhanga riambaye; ariko kandi ikora ibikorwa byayo byose mu mbibi za RDC gusa.
Nta na rimwe kuva 2021 yigeze irenga imbibi za Congo ngo irwane mu kindi gihugu.
Hari Impamvu 3 zatuma AFC/M23 itatera u Burundi:
Kwinjiza u Burundi mu ntambara mpuzamahanga byayishyira mu mazi abira, M23 yakwisanga mu mwanya wo gutangiza intambara mpuzamahanga, u Rwanda rukisanga mu mwanya wo kongera gushinjwa ifasha M23, umubano w’u Burundi n’ibihugu bituranyi ukajya mu kaga.
Ni ibintu M23 yavuze ko “bidasanzwe mu ntego zayo”.
Kwambuka igihugu cyigenga bizwi neza ko ari igikorwa cy’ubugome burenga imbibi. ONU, AU, EAC n’isi yose byashyira igitutu kuri M23.
M23 irarwana no gufata RDC, si u Burundi. Intego yabo bavuga buri gihe ni: “Kurengera abaturage ba Congo batotezwa, si gufata ibihugu by’abaturanyi.”
Ku rundi ruaKuva 2023 kugeza 2025, u Burundi bwafashe iya mbere mu kurwana mu mirwano yo muri Sud-Kivu, cyane cyane muri: Lemera, Kiliba, Sange, Luvungi, Katogota na Rubuga.
Kubera ko ingabo z’u Burundi zifatanyaga na FDLR, AFC/M23 ibibona nk’“igikorwa cyo ku ruhande rwa Leta ya Kinshasa”.
Kuba bararwanye, hari abatekereza ko M23 ishobora kwihorera. Ibi bitera ubwoba, ariko mu by’ukuri, M23 ikora politiki yo kurwana ku butaka bwa Congo gusa, ntirwanira ahandi.
Ibintu byabaye mu minsi micye byerekana ko u Burundi bwari bwiteguye ibintu bibiri:
kwakira abasirikare babwo basubira iwabo, no gukumira ko “abicengezi” banyura mu mupaka bava muri Congo.
U Burundi bwafunze imipaka kuko hari abasirikare babwo bari bakwiye imishwaro, hari abahungaga imirwano, hari ubwoba ko hari abashobora kwiyivangamo.
Gusa uwabona imipaka ifunze byose, yasobanura ko ari “ugutegura intambara.” Ariko mu by’ukuri, ni gucunga umutekano wo mu gihugu imbere.
