As the Great Lakes region continues to be destabilized by conflicts that have lasted for many years, recent statements by the United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, have once again sparked debate about the future of peace between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Despite signs that the peace agreement is not being implemented as expected, the United States says it still has confidence that the agreement can produce lasting results.
On June 27, 2025, Rwanda and the DRC signed a long-awaited peace agreement, particularly welcomed by the people of eastern DRC, who have endured years of killings, displacement, and extreme poverty.
The agreement aimed to permanently address the root causes of insecurity, including a key provision to dismantle the terrorist group FDLR, which has for years been responsible for serious crimes, and to lift the defensive security measures Rwanda had put in place along its borders.
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This was followed by a high-level ceremony held on December 4, attended by President Paul Kagame, President Félix Tshisekedi, and President Donald Trump.
That ceremony was not only meant to reaffirm the peace agreement, but also marked the beginning of new regional economic cooperation and development agreements, reflecting hope that peace could translate into new opportunities for growth.
As part of efforts to sustain the peace process, Rwanda, the DRC, and the United States agreed to support the implementation of the ceasefire agreement signed in Doha, Qatar, between AFC/M23 and the DRC government. This ceasefire was intended to halt fighting, protect civilians, and pave the way for deeper political dialogue.
However, despite the signing of these agreements, the situation on the ground has continued to present a very different reality from what was expected. Before and after December 4, Congolese government forces, in cooperation with Burundian troops, Wazalendo groups, and the FDLR, launched heavy attacks on areas controlled by AFC/M23 in South Kivu Province, including Kamanyola and Kaziba.
These attacks had devastating consequences for civilians, with many killed, others injured, homes destroyed, and entire families shattered. Large numbers of civilians were once again forced to flee, some toward areas near Rwanda and Burundi, others into forests and other unsafe locations.
In response and in self-defense, AFC/M23 fighters moved down from the highlands into the Ruzizi Plain to confront this coalition of forces. This shift quickly changed the dynamics of the conflict, as AFC/M23 seized key locations including Katogota, Luvungi, Sange, Kiliba, and the city of Uvira, one of the major towns in South Kivu.
This move by AFC/M23 was received in different ways. Some viewed it as a response to continued attacks on civilians and on areas under their control, while others saw it as a sign that the ceasefire and peace agreements were no longer being respected by the DRC government and its allies.
Speaking to journalists on December 19, Secretary Marco Rubio acknowledged that parts of the peace agreement had not been implemented as planned. However, he emphasized that the most important achievement was that Rwanda and the DRC had reached the point of signing a peace agreement, providing a framework that the United States and other partners can rely on.
Rubio explained that the U.S. government had asked members of Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, to engage with leaders of both countries. The goal, he said, is to help them understand the importance of the peace agreement and encourage them to comply with it as the only viable path toward regional security and development.
He added that the United States will not tolerate any backtracking on the agreement, explaining that whenever violations occur, Washington will rely on the signed deal to remind both parties of their obligations. According to him, having a signed agreement provides a diplomatic tool to bring those who stray back into line.
He said: “The good thing for both sides is that we signed an agreement. At least we have something we can hold them to. Often, peace agreements are not fully respected at the beginning, but instead of starting something new, you try to push people back toward what they already agreed to.”
Despite these statements reflecting U.S. confidence, serious concerns remain on the ground in the DRC. Nearly six months after the peace agreement was signed, the DRC government has not yet begun implementing the key provision to dismantle the FDLR, a group long accused of cooperating with state forces and participating in violence against civilians.
Recent reports by United Nations experts have confirmed that cooperation between the FDLR and certain elements within the DRC security forces continues, further eroding confidence in the peace process. This situation has led Rwanda to maintain that its security concerns remain unresolved, while civilians in eastern DRC continue to pay the heavy price of ongoing political and security disputes.
